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August 24, 2007

ANOTHER MERGER TOO CLOSE TO CALL – BUT WITH LOTS OF QUESTIONS

In another of life’s timing ironies, Law.com published an article early on Friday, August 24, 2007 positing the question “Is All Quiet on the Law Firm Merger Front?” – and then late in the afternoon on Friday The Wall Street Journal ran an online article (subscription required) reporting advanced merger talks between Dewey Ballantine LLP and LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene & MacRae LLP.  As I’ve done in prior postings where I’ve looked at other announced mergers (Mergers, Metrics, and Other Musings; A Merger Made in . . .?; and A Merger Too Close to Call), here is a quick LawBall analysis of the proposed Dewey/LeBoeuf merger.  Using data published in the 2006 AmLaw 200 and the 2007 AmLaw 200, at the end of the posting (and also included as a *.pdf attachment under Posting Attachments in the right-hand margin) are:

•    The 2005 and 2006 individual financial operating results for both firms.
•    The annual compounded growth rates from 2005 to 2006 for both firms.
•    A 2006 pro forma for the new firm.
•    A comparison of each firm’s 2006 operating results to the new firm’s pro forma.

Horse_race_photo_finish_hollywood_p As previously was the case with the prospective K&L Gates/Hughes & Luce merger, this merger is too close to call from a relative financial health or financial direction pre-merger perspective alone.  On the one hand, growth from 2005 to 2006 in revenues, profit, asset turnover (revenue per lawyer), and return on assets (ROA or profit per lawyer) all significantly favored LeBoeuf.  On the other hand, return on equity (ROE or profit per partner), leverage, and cost per lawyer growth from 2005 to 2006 all favored Dewey; although it certainly looks like Dewey’s improvement in leverage and ROE largely was the result of a decrease in partners from 110 to 92, as its profit and margin both fell in 2006.  LeBoeuf’s 2006 margin was better – 37.00% to 32.56% - than LeBoeuf’s, although both firms’ margin fell (LeBoeuf from 38.86% and Dewey’s from 34.27%).   Dewey’s 2006 asset turnover ($820,281) actually slightly was higher than LeBoeuf’s ($797,360), as was Dewey’s ROE ($1,445,652 to $1,428,571 for LeBoeuf).  With respect to ROA, which as I’ve said before I believe is a better indicator of a firm’s financial health since it is a good measure of the efficiency with which a business allocates its resources and eliminates the potentially distorting effects of financial leverage on operating results, LeBoeuf’s 2006 ROA ($295,031) was higher than Dewey’s 2006 ROA ($267,063).  LeBoeuf’s leverage in 2006 was 4.8421, while Dewey’s was 5.4130.  Although LeBoeuf’s costs per lawyer grew at a rate (14.28%) in 2006 nearly double Dewey’s cost per lawyer 2006 growth rate (7.64%), LeBoeuf’s actual 2006 cost per lawyer ($502,329) was lower than Dewey’s ($553,213).  Again repeating a comment from prior merger postings, this 1-year snapshot is interesting – but I’d like to see the panoramic view (a 5-year comparison) before I reached any significant conclusions about the relative financial health or direction of the 2 firms pre-merger.

On a post-merger pro forma basis the changes are minimal in size, but definitely show favorites.  In margin, ROA, and cost per lawyer, the pro forma changes resulting from the merger would favor Dewey – that is, on a pro forma basis a combined Dewey LeBoeuf would’ve performed better in 2006 with respect to margin, ROA, and cost per lawyer than Dewey performed on a stand-alone basis; while Dewey LeBoeuf would’ve performed worse than LeBoeuf standing alone in those 3 metrics.  On a post-merger pro forma basis, the changes in asset turnover, leverage, and ROE would favor LeBoeuf.

As I noted in the earlier merger postings, numbers aren’t the entire story to a successful M&A transaction; the transition and integration of the people, technology, and processes (including the typical law firm hot spots – culture and management) into the post-closing firm are critical.  The future success or failure of this announced merger likely lies with the firms’ post-merger transition and integration plan.  But, if I were a partner in either firm, I would ask a series of questions about the 2 firms’ comparative 2006 financial operating performance:  Why did LeBoeuf’s revenues grow 16.70% vs Dewey’s 4.08%?  Why did LeBoeuf’s profit grow 11.11% vs Dewey’s -1.12% decrease?  Why did LeBoeuf’s asset turnover grow 10.91% vs Dewey’s 4.91%?  Why did LeBoeuf’s ROA grow 5.59% vs Dewey’s -0.32% decrease?  Why did LeBoeuf’s costs per lawyer grow 14.28% vs Dewey’s 7.64%?  Are these changes 1-year anomalies or are they continuations of trends?

Dewey_leboeuf_merger_analysis

August 22, 2007

It’s the Delivered Value, Stupid . . . It Ain’t the Time Worked

Please accept my apology for the delay between postings.  Over the past several weeks, I’ve experienced the wedding of the eldest daughter of a very close friend, a death in the family, and the college graduation of a son.  I just couldn’t get too excited about writing a blog posting.

Hourglass The juxtaposition of 4 articles over the past few days finally has snapped me out of my writing lethargy.  Although the articles may appear to have little, if anything, in common, I believe they are representative of a simple business truism that is central to the success of any business model but that often is over-looked:  It’s the delivered value, stupid; and, more importantly with respect to the business of practicing law, it ain’t the time worked.

Let’s look at some of what the 4 articles had to say.  First came the news that Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld had been sued for $4.4 billion by ex-fund managers  of the Veras funds.   The article includes several interesting statements.  The article’s author says:

The suit illustrates the risks law firms face as they try to reap the rewards of representing private investment funds, including hedge funds and private equity funds. Such funds generate high legal bills for firms, but they are apt to strike back hard when they feel lawyers have led them astray.  (Underlining added for emphasis).

. . . Law firms are more in the line of fire because they play a much bigger role at investment funds than they do for corporate clients.

The article further reports:

Barbash [Barry Barbash, the head of the funds business at Wilkie Farr & Gallagher] said the hectic nature of the hedge fund business creates many stressful and difficult situations for lawyers.  Fund managers often call wanting to know right away if they can make a trade or not, leaving the lawyer feeling responsible for the outcome.

"I feel a lot of times like the closer on the mound," said Barbash.

Next came Baker & McKenzie’s press release  announcing it had achieved:

[A] 22% increase in per partner profits (PPP) over the previous fiscal year, taking its PPP above the US$1 million level for the first time.  The Firm has raised PPP by 63% since adopting a more focused global Firm Strategy three years ago.

The release further notes the firm’s fiscal year 2007 financial performance is the product of its efforts “to implement a firmwide Strategy that better leverages for our clients the extensive global platform we have been steadily growing over the past six decades” and one of its 5 key performance areas on which its strategy is focused is “better managing our talent to ensure consistently high quality of service globally.”

Then came the announcement that Atlanta-based Ford & Harrison had “tossed out billable hour requirements for first-year associates.”  According to the The National Law Journal, “The program aims to close the practical-skills gap of law school education and increase value to clients.”

Finally came the article in The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that notes hourly rates for top lawyers are crossing $1,000 per hour.  The article included the following comment:

Considering a major-league baseball player can make the equivalent of $15,000 per hour, “$1,000 for very seasoned lawyers who can solve complex problems doesn't seem to be inappropriate," says Mike Dillon, the general counsel of Sun Microsystems Inc.

Critical to understanding the It’s the Delivered Value, Stupid . . . It Ain’t the Time Worked truism, and how  the 4 articles represent that truism, is coming to the realization:

  • It is value delivered to the customer that is key.
  • Value delivered is the result of total customer value minus total customer price.  Total customer value can consist of such elements as product value, services value, personnel value, and image value.  Total customer price can consist of such elements as monetary price, time cost, energy cost, and psychic cost.
  • The party that determines whether or not value has been delivered to the customer is not the product manufacturer or seller or the service-provider - it is the customer (or “client” in legal industry parlance) who determines whether or not value has been delivered to it.  And that determination may change from customer to customer and from product to product or service to service.  I’ve touched on this point before in prior postings.  In What’s All This Garbage About Business Models?, I quoted from noted corporate strategist Gary Hammel, who described the key link or “bridge” that exists between 2 - core strategy and customer interface - of what Hammel called the 4 major business model components as being:

“Customer benefits” - the particular bundle of benefits actually offered to the customer; the link between Core Strategy and Customer Interface; refer to a “customer-derived definition of the basic needs and wants that are being satisfied.”  (Underlining added for emphasis).

I noted In Is It a Business:

[T]here’s a misalignment between what lawyers want to sell and how they want to sell it and what the buying public wants to buy or how they want to buy it.  Cisco General Counsel Mark Chandler described this misalignment well when, in his recent speech at Northwestern School of Law’s 34th Annual Securities Regulation Institute, he said:

From the law firm think perspective, “sales” too often means a one to one relationship with a lawyer who bills by the hour. As a client, I can tell you what I want to buy is access to information, strategy, and negotiation, and, in the case of litigation, to courtroom skill as well.  (Underlining added for emphasis).

There’s a fundamental misalignment at work here. Law firms cannot afford to own the business risks of their clients, have a lot of employees to pay and also have to allocate the limited resources of extraordinary star partners. On the other hand, we clients want access to information and counseling and want to pay for value received. Put most bluntly, the most fundamental misalignment of interests is between clients who are driven to manage expenses, and law firms which are compensated by the hour.  (Underlining added for emphasis).

Again in What’s All This Garbage About Business Models?, I quoted from an interesting 2004 study of eLawForum (a link to the study is in the margin under “Articles of Interest”), conducted by Harvard Business School Professor Clay Christensen and Scott Anthony, who said:

. . . The growth of specialization means that most corporate legal work does not involve complex problem-solving. With the right experience, specialists can easily recognize patterns and apply familiar tools so that they do not need to “reinvent the wheel.” Pattern recognition dramatically increases efficiency. Hourly rates assume everything requires complex problem-solving. 

In other words, customer benefits - or perhaps total customer value - are needs and wants as defined by the customer that are being satisfied.  Unless you deliver those customer benefits and do so at a price (monetary or otherwise) that creates a desired net delivered value for the customer, you’re going to have serious business “issues.”  Many businesses have elements that have higher and lower areas of risk to them that create different value to their customers - and they are priced accordingly.  Without commenting here about the merits or non-merits of the Akin Gump lawsuit itself, lawyers representing hedge funds may be closer to the business “action” and may be more integral to the business-decision making process - as such they well may be providing higher total customer value to the customer at greater risk to the law firm, to compensate for which they charge a higher fee.  But, like in other businesses, if the customer believes the total customer value it receives isn’t enough or the total customer price it pays is too much, problems will arise.  Or, if you hire brand new employees who require on the job training before they can create anything that contributes to total customer value, but you pay them $160,000 per year while they’re being trained, you can’t expect the customer to pay for that on-the-job training.  But, if you can solve complex problems for customers, e.g., you can charge large amounts for that total customer value that aren’t necessarily related to the amount of time spent - as long as you don’t drive the total customer price to a point where the net delivered value is too low in the eyes of the customer.

It is understanding this fundamental relationship between total customer value and total customer price that underlies the Professional Asset Capability Matrix that I’ve mentioned in earlier postings.  And, it is recognizing more complex problem-solving and the strategic integration of knowledge as higher delivered value services that are key to the legal industry repositioning itself within the information value chain in ways that will enable it to compete successfully for the future.

Why is it that firms like Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz; Wiley Rein; Sullivan & Cromwell; Cahill Gordon & Reindel; Irell & Manella; Cravath, Swaine & Moore; Simpson Thacher & Bartlett; Munger, Tolles & Olson; Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher; and, Quinn Emanuel Urquhrt Oliver & Hedges performed at such a level I chose them as my LawBall top 10 financial operating performance firms for 2006 from the 2007 AmLaw 200 in Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder?  I doubt that it’s because their business models simply are based on billing the most hours - I bet it’s because those models are built around creating the highest delivered value for their clients.  Are Richard Beattie of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, Stephen Susman of Susman Godfrey, and Benjamin Civiletti of Venable worth $1,000 per hour or more, their reported hourly rate per the WSJ article?  I honestly don’t know - only their clients do for sure.

August 07, 2007

THE YELLOW ROSE OF TEXAS

Bluebonnets To do my recent posting about the proposed merger between Kirkpatrick & Lockhart Preston Gates Ellis, “an international firm without a headquarters office,” and Dallas-based Hughes & Luce (A Merger Too Close to Call), I had to go to the Texas Top 25 published in the Texas Lawyer’s 2006 and 2007 Firm Finance Surveys since Hughes & Luce’s gross revenues were not large enough to be included in The American Lawyer’s AmLaw 200.  Now armed with the information on the Texas Top 25, I thought it might be interesting, at least to readers in Texas-based firms, to see a LawBall-type analysis of the Texas Top 25 similar to the one I did recently (Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder) on the AmLaw 200.

As has been my custom, I’ve attached a *.pdf document (“Texas Top 25 Performance Statistics 2006” under the category “Posting Attachments" in the upper right-hand margin of this blog) that includes an analytic table showing the 2006 financial operating performance metrics for each of the firms in the 2007 Texas Top 25 and another table showing the firms’ relative ranking (1 – 25) within each performance metric.  The attachment also includes analytic tables showing the firms’ relative ranking based on both the simple summation of the firms’ rankings in each individual key LawBall metric category and the simple summation of the firms’ rankings in all individual LawBall metric categories.

As I noted before in the 2007 AmLaw 200 tour-concluding posting, I do believe beauty is in the eye of the beholder when evaluating a business – even a business involved in the practice of law.   And, again ever-mindful not only of personal influence on business evaluation, but also the oft-quoted bromide “There are 3 types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics,” I’ve included my own ranking of the Texas Top 25 to illustrate how each of us personally may place different levels of importance on separate performance metrics in evaluating a business. 

When I’m either evaluating a business for investment or purchase or identifying operating performance issues, I use the same metrics I’ve incorporated into LawBall.  Ultimately, however, I place the most importance on these 3 metrics, in order of their importance to me:

  • Return on assets (ROA or, in LawBall, profit per lawyer) (when financial capital is involved as opposed to intellectual capital, I’ll use return on invested capital).  I believe ROA is a good measure of the efficiency with which a business allocates its resources and may be a better indicator of a firm’s financial health and performance than return on equity (ROE or, in LawBall, profit per partner) as it eliminates the potentially distorting effects of financial leverage on operating results.  ROA is the product achieved from multiplying asset turnover by margin.
  • Asset turnover (revenue per lawyer in LawBall) – the measure of revenue being generated by the business’ asset base (“offense” in LawBall).
  • Margin – the measure of how much of the revenue generated is kept as profit (“defense” in LawBall).

I also subscribe to Warren Buffett’s view on the conservative use of leverage.

The biggest differences between the business evaluation I typically perform and the one I shared with you on the AmLaw 200 and share with you today on the Texas Top 25 is normally I:

  • Analyze a business over a 5-year operating period – not just a 1-year period.
  • Know more factually about the actual business in which the individual companies are engaged.
  • Include an estimated value of the business for investment/purchase purposes.  Obviously, that’s not applicable here.

Yellow_rose Here in order are my LawBall top 5 financial operating performance firms for 2006 from the 2007 Texas Top 25 published in Texas Lawyer’s 2007 Firm Finance Survey: Susman Godfrey; Vinson & Elkins; Baker & Botts; Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld; and Carrington, Coleman, Sloman & Blumenthal.  Below are 2 tables for my top 5 - one has the 2006 financial operating performance metrics for each of the firms, with my personal key metrics highlighted in blue, and the other has the firms’ relative ranking among the Texas Top 25 (1 – 25) within each performance metric, again with my personal key metrics highlighted in blue.  By clicking on the tables you can open a larger version.  The *pdf attachment also includes a list of the firms ranked (1 – 25) according to my 3 personal key metrics.

Lawball_texas_top_5_performance_2

Lawball_texas_top_5_ranking

Several brief observations:

  • When compared to the aggregate performances of both the Texas Top 25 and the AmLaw 200, the relative financial operating performance of the aggregate LawBall Texas Top 5 picks exceeded both the Texas Top 25 and the AmLaw 200 in margin, asset turnover, ROA, and ROE.   It also exceeded the aggregate Texas Top 25, but not the AmLaw 200, in leverage.  In other words, these 5 firms achieved better performance with more risk (more aggressive leverage) than that of the aggregate Texas Top 25, but with less risk (more conservative leverage) than the aggregate AmLaw 200.  However, the relative financial operating performance of the aggregate AmLaw LawBall Picks (Top 10) significantly exceeded that of the aggregate LawBall Texas Top 5 picks in every individual key metric category (margin, asset turnover, ROA, leverage, and ROE).  Again, I ask the following question regarding the relative financial operating performance of these firms:  What does that say about these 5 firms’ business models, particularly the firms’ strategy and the mix of the firms’ business demands and their assets (lawyers) to meet that demand as contemplated by the professional asset capability matrix in comparison to other firms?
  • Three (3) of the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks were among the 4 largest Texas Top 25 firms in terms of both the number of lawyers and the amount of gross revenue; while 2 of the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks were among the smallest firms in terms of the number of lawyers.  Susman Godfrey, which ranked 1st among the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks, and Carrington, Coleman, which ranked 5th among the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks, tied for the 3rd smallest number of lawyers (86) in the Texas Top 25.
  • By comparison to the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks, when summing up the Texas Top 25 rankings in each individual key metric category the top 5-ranked firms in order were:  Vinson & Elkins (1st); Baker & Botts (2nd); Akin Gump (tied for 3rd); Susman Godfrey (tied for 3rd); and Fulbright & Jaworski (tied for 5th) and Locke Lidell & Sapp (tied for 5th).
  • By comparison to the LawBall Texas Top 5 picks, when summing up the Texas Top 25 rankings in all of the metric categories the top 5-ranked firms in order were: Vinson & Elkins (1st); Baker & Botts (2nd); Akin Gump (3rd); Susman Godfrey (4th); and Fulbright & Jaworski (5th).

Trophy_with_blue_ribbon The *.pdf attachment also has easy to view individual tables that reflect the firms’ individual rankings (1-25) in all of the key metric categories of margin, asset turnover, ROA, financial leverage, and ROE versus the Texas Top 25 in the aggregate and the AmLaw 200 in the aggregate.   I encourage you to go through the attachment, to see where your firm falls within the data, to see where other firms that interest you fall with in the data, to look at what you consider to be the “best” or “top” firms, to compare relative performances, and to add several more years of your firm’s data to the mix and analyze it in terms of trends.  Most of all, I encourage you to question what insight this data gives you as to business models employed in the legal industry.

In an effort to make it easier for you to navigate through the *.pdf attachment, here’s a listing (in order) of the tables in the document:

  • 2006 Financial Operations Performance – Listed in Order of the LawBall Picks (Just the Top 5).
  • 2006 Financial Operations Performance – Listed in Order of the LawBall Picks (1-25).
  • 2006 Financial Operations Ranking – Listed in Order of the LawBall Picks (1-25).
  • 2006 Financial Operations Performance – Listed in Order of Gross Revenues (the order of ranking chosen by the Texas Lawyer for its top 25).
  • 2006 Financial Operations Performance – Listed Alphabetically.
  • 2006 Financial Operations Ranking – Listed in Order of Gross Revenues.
  • 2006 Financial Operations Ranking – Listed in Order of Key Metrics Ranking.
  • 2006 Financial Operations Ranking – Listed in Order of All Metrics Ranking.
  • 2006 Financial Operations Ranking – Listed Alphabetically.
  • Margin Ranking.
  • Asset Turnover Ranking.
  • Return on Assets Ranking.
  • Financial Leverage Ranking.
  • Return on Equity Ranking.

Each table has a bookmark in the *.pdf document to make it easier for you to find the table.